2024-2026 | Analysis of space weather events near the maximum of solar activity cycle 25 and development of a modernized alert system for increasing radiation conditions
- ИРН AP23489700
- Deadlines: 2024-2026.
- Project Leader: Крякунова О.Н., к.ф.-м.н.
- Project goal: Development of knowledge about the mechanisms of interconnection and processes occurring in near-Earth space, based on the analysis of new data on space weather events near the maximum of the 25th cycle of solar activity.
Project Tasks
Task 1 – Create a unified Kazakhstan database of current and historical data on space weather parameters measured at ground-based instruments of the Institute of Ionosphere, as well as parameters of the near-Earth and interplanetary environment measured on satellites, necessary for analyzing the condition of near-Earth space.
Task 2 – Conduct a comprehensive analysis of space weather events associated with the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes and coronal mass ejections from solar flares and disappearances of solar filaments to the Earth according to data from Kazakhstan ground-based measurements and space measurements during the period close to the maximum of the 25th cycle of solar activity.
Task 3 – Develop a modernized alert system about the beginning of an increase in the radiation situation in satellite orbits based on data of cosmic rays from neutron monitors and solar X-ray.
Task 4 – Create a web interface on the institute’s website for presenting data on space weather parameters measured at ground-based and space measurements.
Expected results:
For task 1 (2024): A unified SQL database of operational data of space weather parameters measured at ground-based installations of the Institute of the Ionosphere (measurements of cosmic rays, geomagnetic field, solar radio emission, optical measurements of mesosphere parameters), as well as parameters of the near-Earth and interplanetary environment measured on satellites will be created, necessary for analyzing the state of near-Earth space (data from space observatories ACE, SOHO, SDO, satellites of the GOES series).
For task 2 (2024): A comprehensive analysis will be performed and the features of space weather events associated with the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes and coronal mass ejections from solar flares and disappearances of solar filaments to the Earth will be studied according to data from Kazakhstani ground-based installations and measurements in outer space in 2024.
For task 1 (2025): The unified database of space weather parameters will be supplemented with archival data from ground-based and space measurements, as well as data on ionospheric parameters, derivative and secondary data necessary for analyzing the state of near-Earth space.
For task 2 (2025): A comprehensive analysis will be performed and the features of space weather events associated with the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes and coronal mass ejections from solar flares and disappearances of solar filaments to the Earth will be studied according to data from Kazakhstani ground-based installations and measurements in outer space in 2025.
For task 3 (2026): The warning system about the beginning of an increase in the radiation situation will be modernized and supplemented with the function of generating an alert signal based on the detection of neutrons of solar origin.
For task 4 (2026): A web interface will be developed that allows to view all the data available in the created database in the form of charts, tables and images and has functions for selecting dates, the type of data being viewed, scaling, combining different types of data when viewing, changing the chart style, loading data in text format.
For task 2 (2026): A comprehensive analysis will be performed and the features of space weather events associated with the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes and coronal mass ejections from solar flares and disappearances of solar filaments to the Earth will be studied according to data from Kazakhstani ground-based installations and measurements in outer space in 2026 year.
Results Obtained
Results obtained for 2024:
A unified SQL database of operational space weather parameters measured at the Institute of Ionosphere ground-based facilities (measurements of cosmic rays, the geomagnetic field, solar radio emission, and optical measurements of mesosphere parameters), as well as parameters of the near-Earth and interplanetary environment measured by satellites necessary for analyzing the state of near-Earth space (data from the ACE, SOHO, and SDO space observatories, and the GOES series satellites), has been created. A comprehensive analysis was conducted and the characteristics of space weather events associated with the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes and coronal mass ejections from solar flares and the disappearance of solar filaments to Earth were identified, based on data from Kazakhstan’s ground-based facilities and space measurements in 2024. A new sub-GLE event (sub-event of ground-level enhancement of solar cosmic rays) was detected and analyzed based on data from neutron monitors of the global network of stations on June 8, 2024.
Results obtained for 2025:
According to the expected outcomes of the contractual work plan, the database of space weather parameters measured by the ground-based instruments of the Institute of Ionosphere, as well as parameters of the near-Earth and interplanetary environment measured by spacecraft, has been expanded with archival and derived datasets required for the analysis of near-Earth space conditions. A unified database of space weather parameters has been established, incorporating archival ground-based and space-borne measurements, ionospheric parameters, as well as derived and secondary data necessary for comprehensive analysis of the near-Earth space environment. A comprehensive analysis was carried out, and specific features of space weather events associated with the arrival at Earth of high-speed solar wind streams originating from coronal holes, as well as coronal mass ejections generated by solar flares and disappearing solar filaments, were identified using data from Kazakhstan’s ground-based observational facilities and space-borne measurements obtained in 2025. From 1 to 10 June 2025, the global neutron monitor network recorded the largest Forbush decrease of the past 20 years. This event was preceded by a smaller Forbush decrease associated with the arrival of a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. The coronal mass ejection of 31 May (M8.2, 00:05 UT, N12E12) triggered a severe geomagnetic storm and produced a complex, long-duration Forbush decrease. According to observations from the neutron monitor station of the Institute of Ionosphere, the magnitude of the Forbush decrease reached 15%.
Project Publications
Article
1. Poluianov, S., Mishev, A., Kryakunova, O. Seifullina B., Nikolayevskiy N., Usoskin I. Ground-Level Enhancement of 8 June 2024 (GLE 75) Caused by Solar Energetic Particles. // Solar Physics. – 2025. – Vol. 300, – No. 113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-025-02518-9
2. Shepetov A, Kryakunova O, Koichubayev R, Nikolayevskiy N, Ryabov V, Seifullina B, Tsepakina I, Zhukov V. Observation of the Large Forbush Decrease Event on 1–10 June 2025 at the Tien Shan Cosmic Ray Station. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(12):1349. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121349
