2023: To create a basis for the implementation of integrated monitoring of hydraulic structures and adjacent territories located in different seismic and geological conditions; To assess the condition of structures using ground-based ground-penetrating radar sounding.

2024: Monitor displacements at hydraulic structures and adjacent territories using radar satellite imagery to assess local deformation processes; Develop a lineament density map based on an analysis of optical survey data to assess regional geodynamic activity; Develop a geodynamic zoning map of the territory of the hydrocomplex under consideration based on a comprehensive analysis of the results of the previous stages and geological and geophysical data.

2025: Develop three-dimensional digital models of reservoirs and adjacent territories based on ground-based and satellite measurements; Develop a spatial geomechanical model for the distribution of stress-strain state parameters of hydraulic structures and adjacent territories, taking into account kinematic data; Develop methodological recommendations for assessing and monitoring the technical condition of hydraulic structures.

2023: The basis for the implementation of comprehensive monitoring of hydraulic structures and adjacent territories located in different seismic and geological conditions; Information on the state of structures using ground-based ground-penetrating radar sounding.

2024: Displacement data for hydraulic structures and adjacent territories based on radar satellite imagery for assessing local deformation processes; Lineament density map based on optical survey data analysis for assessing regional geodynamic activity; Geodynamic zoning map of the territory of the hydrocomplex under consideration based on a comprehensive analysis of the results of previous stages and geological and geophysical data.

2025: Three-dimensional digital models of reservoirs and adjacent territories based on ground-based and satellite measurements; Spatial geomechanical model of the distribution of stress-strain state parameters of hydraulic structures and adjacent territories taking into account kinematic data; Methodological recommendations for assessing and monitoring the technical condition of hydraulic structures.

As part of the ongoing research, a basis was created for the implementation of comprehensive monitoring of hydraulic structures and adjacent territories located in different seismogeological conditions. Using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) sounding as an example, data on the condition of the Voroshilov and Priyut reservoirs was collected. For the Voroshilov reservoir, a ground-penetrating radar study revealed critically high-water saturation of the dam body (even after dewatering), which triggered intense seepage, soil erosion, and progressive internal erosion, ultimately leading to failure. The critical increase in water saturation also contributed to an increase in pore pressure, reducing the effective stress in the soil. This led to a decrease in the stability of the dam material and created the conditions for sudden deformations or even liquefaction of the soil. Obtained data on displacements at hydraulic structures and adjacent areas of the Voroshilov Reservoir, based on radar satellite imagery used to assess local deformation processes, identified key factors in the dam’s failure. Deformation process graphs reflect increasing instability in the technical condition. Beginning in the spring of 2022, abnormal uplifts with an amplitude of up to 30 mm were recorded, likely related to progressive moisture saturation and soil swelling. The impact of microseismic activity in the region should not be underestimated. A clear trend toward increased deformation of the dam body after each seismic event is evident. This culminated in two powerful seismic shocks in January and March 2024, which, in all likelihood, served as the immediate trigger for the final failure of the dam. Although a dam failure is a multifactorial event, the combined data allows us to confidently assume that the key factors were: massive water seepage through the dam body, potential soil slippage, and the structure’s long service life, which led to the accumulation of defects. The results of this study convincingly demonstrate the critical importance of regular and comprehensive assessments of the technical condition of hydraulic structures, including the use of ground-based and remote sensing methods. Timely preventive maintenance based on the results of such monitoring can significantly reduce potential damage from harmful water impacts and prevent catastrophic accidents. Lineament analysis and geodynamic zoning of the area revealed that, despite the Almaty region’s general location in a high seismic hazard zone (PGA 0.4–0.9 g), the areas where the Voroshilov and Priyut reservoirs are located are characterized by reduced local geodynamic activity and comparatively low lineament density. This indicates the relative structural stability of the sites. However, the failure of the Voroshilov Dam in 2024 confirms that even under conditions of reduced local activity, the cumulative effect of seismic impacts and hidden seepage processes along fracture zones can lead to critical consequences. The study’s results confirm the effectiveness of a comprehensive approach that includes lineament analysis, linear structure density mapping, assessment of current ground motion using GPS and InSAR data, and detailed seismic zoning. This approach allows for the identification of potential high-risk zones, prediction of underground seepage directions, and refinement of the overall stability of hydraulic structures. The resulting 3D digital models of reservoirs and adjacent territories, based on lidar data, have proven to be a powerful tool for both scientific research and applied applications. The research results demonstrate that integrated data processing enables the construction of highly accurate DEM/DSM, while subsequent analysis to determine key terrain parameters and model various processes using these models enables the assessment of risks from natural and man-made processes and ensures effective planning. Furthermore, detailed DEM based on LiDAR data significantly improve the quality of spatial assessments and forecasts. A reconstruction of the historical dam failure that occurred on March 30, 2024, by modeling the flooding of the area adjacent to the Voroshilov Reservoir demonstrated the effectiveness of using high-resolution DEMs obtained from lidar data. The modeling results showed that the majority of the lake’s volume drained within 6 hours, the water flowing along the existing riverbed, without spilling onto roads or flooding buildings, consistent with the chronology of actual events. Modeling a hypothetical scenario involving the lake’s full capacity showed that such a scenario would likely result in overflow onto a nearby road, with water reaching critical distances to the road and nearby buildings. The simulation, conducted using ArcGIS Pro’s Flood Simulation tool, demonstrated that while this module doesn’t replace more complex engineering models, it does offer a quick and convenient way to test various scenarios and can be used as a real-time decision-making tool in the planning and design of hydraulic structures. Modeling the Voroshilov Dam’s stress-strain state allowed for analyzing the structure’s behavior under various hydrogeological and seepage conditions. The calculation model included the dam body, foundation, and seepage and hydrostatic loads corresponding to normal operation and potential emergency scenarios. The modeling results showed that even a slight increase in groundwater level significantly reduces the dam’s stability due to increased seepage pressure and pore pressure within the structure. The obtained results can be used to assess the factors that led to the failure, as well as to develop recommendations for strengthening and reconstructing similar hydraulic structures, taking into account the impact of seepage processes and changing hydrogeological conditions. Following the completed work, methodological recommendations were developed for assessing and monitoring the technical condition of hydraulic structures. These recommendations demonstrate that the use of satellite interferometry (InSAR), space and aerial photography data, and ground-based geophysical methods (ground-penetrating radar surveys) enables high-quality assessment and continuous monitoring of deformation processes without the need for constant on-site specialist presence. The proposed approach is particularly effective for remote and hard-to-reach hydraulic structures, where regular instrumental measurements are difficult. The integrated use of remote and in-situ observation methods enables continuous, highly accurate, and spatially comprehensive monitoring of the condition of hydraulic structures, the timely identification of areas of increased deformation, and the mitigation of the risk of emergency situations. The presented methodology can be recommended for use in monitoring and assessing the safety of hydraulic structures in seismically active regions of Central Asia, as well as for the development of preventive monitoring and risk management systems for hydraulic structure failure.

• Dzhangulova G.K., Dedova T.V., Kuznetsova O.P., Bashirova N.Z., Kalybekova A.A. Dam break flooding simulation using a DEM constructed from LiDAR data // News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences. – 2025. – Vol. 4, No. 472. – P. 92–108. – ISSN 2224–5278. https://doi.org/10.32014/2025.2518-170X.532 (Q3 percentile Scopus – 37) (in English)

• Talgarbayeva D., Vilyaev A., Dedova T., Kuznetsova O., Jangulova G. InSAR monitoring of dam deformations in a seismically active region of Kazakhstan for identifying precursors of failure // Frontiers in Earth Science472. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2025.1638088 (Q2 percentile Scopus – 73) (in English)